ANALYSIS | FAKTAIN.COM – While shells are exchanged across the Thai-Cambodian border, the real drivers of this conflict lie far from the front lines, rooted in a dramatic political betrayal, domestic instability, and the calculated moves of two of Asia’s most enduring political families.
The current clashes are more severe than the skirmishes that have occasionally erupted along the disputed border, such as those in 2008 and 2011. While past incidents were de-escalated quickly, the current crisis was ignited by the deliberate unraveling of a decades-long personal alliance, making a resolution far more complex.
The Catalyst: A Leaked Call and a Public Humiliation
The diplomatic relationship deteriorated sharply last month when Cambodia’s veteran leader, Hun Sen, leaked a private phone conversation with then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
In the call, Paetongtarn, daughter of former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra, addressed Hun Sen informally as “uncle” and criticized one of her own military commanders. The leak sparked public fury in Thailand, leading to Paetongtarn’s suspension as prime minister while the Constitutional Court considers her dismissal.
The move was a stunning betrayal of a close, personal relationship between the two political dynasties. For decades, the Shinawatra family and Hun Sen maintained a friendship of convenience. This alliance saw Hun Sen provide sanctuary to Thaksin’s supporters after the 2014 military coup, and in turn, saw cooperation in more shadowy areas, including the controversial repatriation of Cambodian dissidents from Thailand.
Domestic Weakness Fuels the Fire
Both governments are escalating the conflict from a position of domestic vulnerability, leaving little room for compromise.
- In Thailand
The shaky coalition government, now led by an acting prime minister, is grappling with a stagnant economy and the looming threat of punitive US tariffs. It cannot afford to appear weak in a nationalist dispute with Cambodia. The Shinawatra family, caught off-guard by the betrayal, has responded with an increasingly bitter war of words. - In Cambodia
The country is led by the inexperienced Hun Manet, who has yet to consolidate the authority of his father, Hun Sen. Meanwhile, Hun Sen himself appears willing to push the conflict further, potentially to bolster his son’s standing and his own legacy. Cambodia’s economy is also struggling, having never fully recovered from the pandemic and facing the same US tariff threat.
This has moved beyond rhetoric. Thai authorities have begun investigating powerful Cambodian business figures linked to illicit gambling and scam centers, halting trade worth billions of dollars. In response, Cambodia expelled the Thai ambassador, setting the stage for the current military confrontation.
The Unanswered Question: Hun Sen’s Motive
The central mystery is why Hun Sen chose to incinerate a long-standing friendship to inflame this conflict. Analysts point to several possible motives:
- Economic Retaliation
The move could be a response to Thailand’s recent crackdown on cross-border scam centers, which are a significant, if illicit, part of the regional economy. - Threat to Business Interests
Thaksin Shinawatra’s ambition to legalize gambling in Thailand poses a direct threat to Cambodia’s lucrative casino industry. - A Machiavellian Pivot
Hun Sen, one of Asia’s wiliest political survivors, may have calculated that his ally, Thaksin, has lost significant influence in Thailand. By turning on him, Hun Sen can burnish his own nationalist credentials at home while abandoning a weakened partner.
He has further escalated by claiming to possess secret documents that could incriminate Thaksin in Thailand, including for the severe crime of insulting the monarchy.
For now, neither side appears willing to back down. While experienced figures like Hun Sen and Thaksin almost certainly have the ability to find an off-ramp, their current political constraints make it difficult. The role of ASEAN in mediating, a primary purpose of the bloc, remains to be seen, but will be a priority for member states hoping to restore regional stability.
Beyond the Border: A Personal Betrayal Ignites the Thailand-Cambodia Conflict